Jason Isbell @ the Ryman @ the Orion

Posted on October 27, 2023 by Jason

Two shows, about a week apart.

Same artist.

Same great company.

Two different venues.

So much fun!

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Prayer Night

Posted on October 22, 2023 by Jason

My brothers and sisters, earnestly in prayer, keeping hope alive.

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Fall Retreat

Posted on October 18, 2023 by Jason

I had the opportunity recently to speak at our Middle School Fall Retreat. From my youth ministry days, fall retreat was always my favorite event. And I have to say, it was a real blessing to me to be able to spend some time with so many of our students who were so interested in learning about prayer. There is much in the world that may be disheartening, but these young people and their hunger for the Lord renews my hope.

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Our Family Thread

Posted on October 16, 2023 by Jason

This is basically all that our family text thread has become these days: pictures of our dogs.

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#21 in Black and Gold

Posted on October 14, 2023 by Jason

Our #32 is wearing #21, at least for now. Love this pic.

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2023 MLB Division Series Predictions

Posted on October 6, 2023 by Jason

Well, given my 1-3 prediction performance in the Wild Card round, you’d think I didn’t watch much baseball. But this game, man. It’s crazy. And in a short series, just about anything can happen. Congrats to the Rangers, Twins, Diamondbacks and Phillies for advancing to the next round.

I was most surprised by Arizona’s upset of Milwaukee. After the DBacks burned up Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly just to make it into the postseason, I didn’t think they would have the pitching to advance. But their bats chased Corbin Burnes early and they had a fresh Gallen ready to go for Game 2.

It’s also disappointing to see a 99-win team like the Rays eliminated this early. For most of the season, they’ve been one of the dominant clubs in the league. It just feels weird that they won’t be squaring off against Baltimore in October. But they were really outplayed by Texas in every facet of the game.

Here are my predictions / thoughts about the Divisional Series round, starting tomorrow:

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles shocked EVERYONE by winning 101 games this season, second only to the juggernaut Braves. The O’s were led by youngsters Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson (the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year), whose contributions alongside veterans Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle gave Baltimore an upper echelon offense. The Baltimore rotation might not be full of household names (John Means, Kyle Bradish, Kyle Gibson, and Grayson Rodriguez), but they’ve really pitched well down the stretch. And the O’s bullpen continues to be a strength, even without Felix Bautista.

Texas surprised me by sweeping the Rays on the road, although you could say that Tampa also bungled their way to defeat with their sloppy play. Nevertheless, the Rangers find themselves in the Divisional Round. And although the Rangers can certainly hit their way to a series win, they’ll need Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to repeat their performances from the Wild Card round. If they don’t, look for the young Baltimore hitters to feast on the beleaguered Rangers bullpen. Caveat: if Max Scherzer is somehow able to pitch in this series, that might tip the scales in the Rangers favor for me. But otherwise, I’m taking Baltimore to advance. Joshua says he’s doing the same.

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

My initial thought here was that Houston would steamroll. But the more I think about this series, the more I think Minnesota can give the reigning champs a run. First of all, it’s a shorter series, which always favors the less talented squad. But I also like the mix and match capability Rocco Baldelli has available. You saw it in Game 2 when he pinch hit for Kiriloff in a key spot; his decision to bring Donovan Solano off the bench eventually put Carlos Correa in position to drive in a key run in Minnesota’s 2-0 victory. And that bullpen — lights out all the way.

Houston, on the other hand, has a lot of star power: Verlander, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Bregman. And yet, their pitching has not been crisp down the stretch. In fact, Minnesota has the all-important pitching advantage in this series, in my opinion. I’m actually picking the upset here. Twins in five. Joshua says he wants Houston.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Rematch time. I cannot WAIT to watch these games. Atlanta has been the best team in baseball all season and they look primed for another deep playoff run. But they’ll have to square off with a formidable opponent in Philly. (If MLB reseeded, the Braves would have drawn the Diamondbacks instead of the reigning NL-pennant winners.)

The Braves are a bit banged up, at least on the pitching side. Charlie Morton has been ruled out and who knows what to expect from Max Fried. In a short series like this, that puts a lot of pressure on Spencer Strider in Game 1. Of course, Strider has had a dominant season this year and he’s the best starter in this series. But even if you give Game 1 to the Braves, the Phillies have the next best starters available in Wheeler and Nola. And the Philly lineup is nearly as deep and their bullpen is a major plus.

Joshua’s taking the Phillies in an upset, so I’ll stick with Atlanta, although I see his logic. Either way, I expect this to be a fantastic series.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

These aren’t the same Dodgers we’ve been accustomed to watching in October, at least not on the pitching side. Clayton Kershaw is still there, but he’s not quite looked right in the second half. Gone are his rotation mates Julio Urias (suspended), Walker Buehler (injured), Tony Gonsolin (injured) and Dustin May (injured). In their place, the Dodgers have relied on a cadre of arms, mostly young, like Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot, along with timeless veteran Lance Lynn. All in all, it’s a bit underwhelming compared to the typical Dodger staff.

But the Dodgers have been carried all season by their two MVP candidates, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. The lineup behind them is a plus, with J.D. Martinez enjoying a renaissance season at designated hitter and Max Muncy and Will Smith providing additional depth. If I were making a case for the Diamondbacks, I’d probably lean on the fact that Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are really good starting pitchers — maybe better than anyone the Dodgers can roll out there present day. But I just don’t have that much faith in Arizona. Until the Dodgers prove that their window has closed, I’m banking on Los Angeles to advance. Joshua’s taking the Dodgers, too.

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2023 MLB Wild Card Predictions

Posted on October 2, 2023 by Jason

I’m still getting used to the idea of teams having first round byes in the playoffs. But conceptually, I like the idea of your top teams being awarded for winning their division. I mean, finishing in first place after 162 games ought to matter.

And also there’s this: MLB made no secret about it’s desire to shorten game length, which led to the advent of the pitch clock. It’s still a stupid idea, pandering to attention deficient “casual fans” who apparently weren’t watching games because they were taking too long. So Rob Manfred’s genius decision was to impose an arbitrary 15 second pitch clock for hurlers to 1) receive the pitch signal from the catcher, either through a PitchCom earpiece or good old fashioned hand signals; 2) shake off that signal, in the event that they want to throw a pitch other than the one called by the catcher; 3) check on any baserunners (in which cases the pitch clock is set to 20 seconds) and determine whether or not to make a pickoff throw; 4) come set; and 5) go through their delivery and execute a big league pitch prior to the expiration of the pitch clock, otherwise incurring a penalty of a “ball” being added to the batter’s count. I’ve worried all year about pitchers injuring themselves by rushing their mechanics because of this idiotic rule. If you’ve ever pitched — or in my case, if you have a son who pitches — you know that most pitcher injuries occur when the pitcher is tired or winded. And now we’ve just increased the likelihood of this scenario because those charged with stewarding the game only care about bottom lines, viewership numbers, and “growing the game” — which is always code for making more money. I guess that’s all well and good for a meaningless Pirates / Rockies game in late July (which no “casual fan” is going to watch anyway). But in October? In a playoff environment? Players have already said that in key moments late in games, it’s difficult for the pitcher to hear the PitchCom communication in their ear. What will this be like in a sold out domed stadium for a Game 6 playoff game? It’ll be nearly impossible. I just don’t see how any of this really does much to positively impact the game. But I’m basically an old man on this point. Get off my lawn, I guess.

Anyway, the playoffs start tomorrow, new rule changes and all. Here are my thoughts and predictions for each playoff series, along with Joshua’s.

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

This is by far the best matchup of any opening round series. Run differential (the difference between the runs a team scores and the number of runs they allow) is probably the best metric for determining a team’s overall quality (at least in my opinion). And according to run differential, these are the two best teams in the American League. The Rangers have a really dynamic offense, led by the middle infield combo of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Along with Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, and Mitch Garver, the Rangers boast a deep lineup that is capable of deciding a short series. The problem is their pitching. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are both on the shelf; Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t looked like himself after coming back from a late season injury; and the bullpen is a total wreck. Jordan Montgomery is a fine pitcher — and I’ll be rooting for the former Cardinal to continue his season long run of quality starts. But the Rays have quite an advantage when it comes to pitching, even without Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs. Tyler Glasnow in Game 1 and Zach Eflin in Game 2 might be enough to lead the Rays in a sweep. Can you imagine the juice in this series if all the injured / suspended players were available? It says something that the Rays still finished with 99 wins, despite losing their best player (Wander Franco) to suspension in late summer.

Jason’s prediction: Rays in three games.

Joshua, on the other hand, likes the Rangers in three.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

This is another really good matchup and I like the makeup of both of these teams. The Twins last playoff win came in October 2004. Since then, they’re 0-18 in playoff games, despite winning their division multiple times in the last 20 years. They’re basically the Dallas Cowboys of baseball. So I guess you could say that they’re due. They certainly have the pitching to win a short series. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have been really solid all year and Jhoan Duran has emerged as a premier arm in the back of their bullpen. And manager Rocco Baldelli uses his full roster to play matchups as well as anyone. And in terms of run differential, Minnesota grades out as a 93 win team, which means they underperformed just a bit in 2022. But the best Twins hitter over the last two months has been infielder Royce Lewis and his availability for this series is very much in doubt. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have an equally solid pitching staff, fronted by ace Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and AL wins leader Chris Bassitt. (Admit it: you had no idea Chris Bassitt led the league in wins, did you?) And their bullpen is even deeper with Jordan Romano, Jordan Hicks, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia. They also boast a good defense and a much better lineup. I expect the Twins to break the 18 game losing streak in this series — and don’t be surprised if Chris Paddack doesn’t have the ball in his hands in a key spot during the course of this series — but I think Toronto wins the series.

Jason’s prediction: Blue Jays in three games.

Joshua’s prediction: Blue Jays in three.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

When Brandon Woodruff came back from shoulder inflammation late in the season, Milwaukee was already cruising toward another NL Central Division title. But with Woodruff and 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes starting the first two games of a playoff series, I thought the Brewers could be set up for a sneaky postseason run, a la the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies who were carried through October by their co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. But now it looks like Woodruff will miss at least the Wild Card round and possibly the rest of the postseason. That may dim Milwaukee’s postseason luster just a tad, but I’m still taking them over the surprising Diamondbacks in this early round. They still have Burnes and Freddy Peralta. And nobody manages a bullpen better than manager Craig Counsell. The Diamondbacks, much like the Orioles in the American League, arrived ahead of schedule. In Arizona’s case, their surge into October is largely due to the emergence of Corbin Carroll, a 22 year old wunderkind who will pick up some much deserved hardware next month in the form of the NL Rookie of the Year award. But the DBacks had to exhaust their best pitchers just to sneak into the playoffs, thus they are starting a rookie with a 5.72 ERA in Game 1. I like Milwaukee to sweep and possibly even push the Dodgers to the brink in the next round.

Jason’s prediction: Brewers in two games.

Joshua’s prediction: Diamondbacks in two games. Not sure what he’s seeing that I’m overlooking.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

The Marlins took the season series from the Phillies by a game, which is kind of surprising to me. But Miami has outperformed expectations all season long. Based on run differential, Miami is more like a 75-win team, which doesn’t seem to bode well for their postseason odds. But they have pitching, which means they have a puncher’s chance. The case for Philadelphia is much stronger. They still have their pair of aces at the front of the rotation in Wheeler and Nola (although Nola underperformed in his contract year). And they also have a bevy of high caliber bullpen options, too. Oh, and they added Trae Turner to a squad that took the Astros all the way to six games last October. Their lineup boasts SIX 20-HR hitters, or FIVE more than Miami. That’s a bit misleading, seeing as how the Marlins played most of the year without Jake Burger and Josh Bell, two hitters acquired at the deadline who really helped lengthen the Miami lineup significantly. But I expect Philadelphia’s star power to be the determining factor in this series. I like Philly in three games.

Jason’s prediction: Phillies in three low-scoring games.

Joshua’s prediction: Philly sweeps in two.

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2023 MLB Awards

Posted on September 29, 2023 by Jason

I haven’t written much about the MLB season this summer — maybe because my beloved Cardinals have been terrible. This is the team’s first losing season since 2007 and only the 16th time since 1900 they’ve lost 90 games (or more) in a single season. For context, the Seattle Mariners have had 15 such seasons since their inception in 1977. It’s been a good run and we’ll be back.

Despite the struggles of the Redbirds, this season has been full of some pretty amazing storylines. Individually, we have been treated to historic seasons from the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, and Mookie Betts. We’ve seen prime versions of Matt Olson and Gerrit Cole. Rookies like Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll look like they are poised to lead their teams for the next 10 years. And at a team level, the Orioles arrived ahead of schedule while the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays keep plowing ahead with the same dominance we all expected. It’s been a great regular season and I’m looking forward to the postseason.

Here is my breakdown of the award winners in both leagues — at least the most deserving winners in my opinion.

AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani

A year ago, despite Aaron Judge’s record-breaking season for the Yankees, I was saying Ohtani was the most valuable player in the game, maybe of all time. His game-changing power in the batter’s box, coupled with his emergence as a premium, All Star caliber starting pitcher, simply puts him in a category all by himself. Not since Babe Ruth has the sport seen such multi-faceted dominance — and remember, Ruth never played integrated ball, never had to travel coast to coast, never had to hit a slider. Shohei Ohtani is simply the best baseball player I have ever seen and during this unprecedented run of two-way excellence from 2021-23, he should’ve been the unanimous MVP winner three times in a row.

But chicks still love the longball and Judge won the AL MVP award last season on the strength of his 62 home runs and the Yankees’ AL East title. And yet, somehow, Ohtani was even better in 2022 than he was when he took the sport by storm in his MVP season of 2021.

And somehow, he was even better in 2023.

After suffering a second MAJOR elbow injury, nobody knows if we will ever see this version of Shohei Ohtani again. He’s had the internal brace operation (the less invasive of the two procedures commonly called “Tommy John surgery”), but I’d be shocked if we see him on the mound at all in 2024. He continues to be the best DH in the game but his historic value has always been linked to his ability to both hit and hurl 100MPH baseballs with limitless aplomb. Still, the dude hasn’t played a game in nearly a month and he still leads the AL in homers. And his pitching rate stats are still elite.

Not since Ozzie Smith (my childhood baseball idol) has a baseball player inspired more awe in me. Ohtani should win this award in a landslide.

NL MVP: Ronald Acuna

If I could have it my way, Acuna would share this award with his fellow leadoff man Mookie Betts. But if I have to pick one, as much as I love Mookie (who has a legitimate MVP case in his own right), I’d have to select Acuna and his historic 40 HR / 70 SB season. In fact, Acuna is the only man in the 40 / 50, 40 / 60, AND 40 / 70 clubs. That’s impressive.

So is this: no other player in the long history of the game has a 40 homer season AND a 70 steal season in their career. Acuna did both of those things this year.

Acuna leads the league in a host of categories: hits, runs, OBP, OPS, and total bases. He is the offensive catalyst for the best offense in baseball. MVP cases are built upon such narratives and that’s why Acuna should win this award.

But over the last few months, Mookie Betts has somehow asserted himself into this discussion. At the All Star break, I felt as strongly about Acuna’s case for NL MVP as I did (and still do) about Ohani’s in the AL. But Betts has a strong case as well, with over 100 RBI from the leadoff spot, which is historic in it’s own right — although Acuna has also accomplished this feat this season. Betts also has 80 extra base hits. His overall offensive numbers aren’t quite at the same level as Acuna’s, but Mookie’s value is multiplied by his defensive superiority and versatility. Betts has been playing Gold Glove defense in RF for years but this year, he’s logged over 550 innings in the middle infield as well. This versatility has afforded Dodgers manager Dave Roberts the luxury of a wider set of matchup advantages and — coupled with Betts’ offensive production — gives Mookie the slight edge over Acuna in WAR (wins against replacement). I don’t know how many voters will give Mookie an edge based on all of this, but it’s possible.

Like I said in the opening paragraph, I’d love to award both men for these amazing seasons. But if I had to pick one over the other, I’d have to give the slight edge to Acuna.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole

Did you know that Gerrit Cole has never won a Cy Young award? I heard that this week and my first thought was, “That’s not true.” But sure enough, he’s never won the coveted award. In fact, when you look over the AL Cy Young winners from the last 10-15 years, you see a couple of surefire Hall of Famers (Scherzer, Verlander) but lots of “one year wonders” like Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel, and Rick Porcello. How does Rick Porcello have a Cy Young and Gerrit Cole doesn’t?

[Sidebar: Who is the worst player to win a Cy Young award? My gut says Porcello is a pretty solid answer to the question; career WAR of 18.8. Willie Hernandez is on this Mount Rushmore as well, with his career WAR of 16.5. Same for Steve Bedrosian and his 14 WAR. (What was it with these closers winning Cy Young Awards in the 80s?) Pat Hentgen was pretty mediocre. Did you actually remember him as the 1996 AL Cy Young Award winner? Neither did I.]

Anyway, this ought to be the year Cole is finally rewarded for his excellence. Kevin Gausman and Luis Castillo deserve some down ballot votes but this award should go to Cole.

NL Cy Young: Blake Snell???

This will be an interesting call for the award voters. On the one hand, Snell stands out due to the fact that he leads the National League in WAR for pitchers. He leads the league in ERA. He has allowed the fewest hits per 9/IP of any qualified NL pitcher. He is second in the league in K per 9/IP and overall strikeouts. And for the last several months, he’s been virtually unhittable: over his last 23 starts, Snell is 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA, having allowed 19 earned runs. That’s insane.

But the guy also leads the league in walks. Which doesn’t completely undermine his Cy Young candidacy. But it’s definitely weird. He’s also not a volume pitcher compared to some of his fellow NL hurlers. It’s telling that he Snell has only faced 11 batters after the sixth inning this year. That’s just crazy.

So while Snell is far from a perfect choice, it’s difficult to come up with compelling reasons to vote for someone else. Spencer Strider looked the part for the first half, but he’s come back to earth quite a bit. Clayton Kershaw was rolling toward his first Cy hardware in nearly a decade before his back flared up (again) and cost him a month and a half. Logan Webb? Zac Gallen? Zack Wheeler? Justin Steele? All have had nice seasons, but not Cy Young worthy.

In the end, I think the award should probably go to Snell, partially on the basis of his performance and partially because there’s really no legitimate argument to be made for any other NL starter.

AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson

I would be really tempted to vote for Tanner Bibee (pronounced “Bybee”) — for obvious reasons. Over 140 big league innings, Bibee has posted a 10-4 W-L record with 141 strikeouts and a 2.98 ERA. And kudos to the pitching factory that is the Guardians organization. They just keep churning out elite arms.

But Gunnar Henderson has been a mainstay for an Orioles club that has come out of nowhere to win 100 games and claim the AL East title. On the last weekend of the regular season, Henderson has 28 HR, 82 RBI, and 99 runs scored while playing third and shortstop for a division champ. He’s the easy choice for AL Rookie of the Year.

NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll

Start with 25 HR. Add 52 stolen bases. 116 runs scored. 153 games played (and counting) and a possible postseason berth. Other than Ohtani, this should be the easiest vote among the major awards this winter.

Managers of the Year: Brandon Hyde and Brian Snitker

In the American League, I hope Bruce Bochy garners some major love for what he’s done with the Texas Rangers this season. Despite all their pitching injuries, Boch still has the Rangers in a prime spot. But Hyde deserves this award. Nobody saw the O’s ascent happening for another year or two. What a masterful job by Hyde.

In the National League, Craig Counsell is so good in Milwaukee. He’s just steady and he manages a bullpen better than anyone in the league. But you have to acknowledge what Snitker is doing down in Atlanta. That lineup would make a lot of managers look like geniuses. But in the end, somebody has to manage all of those personalities and it’s evident that Snitker knows how to get the best out of his players. The Braves are the best team in baseball and it’s really not even close.

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Holy Confrontation: Guilt

Posted on September 28, 2023 by Jason

When God called Moses out of the burning bush, He told him to go back to Egypt, to confront Pharaoh and to demand that he set the Israelites free from slavery. Exodus 3:10, “Come, I will send you to Pharaoh that you may bring my people, the children of Israel, out of Egypt.”

But remember: Egypt is the place of guilt and shame for Moses. He’s a wanted man back in Egypt. The last time he was there, he killed a man — and as far as Moses knows, there’s still a warrant out for his arrest.

But God does this because this is a holy confrontation. God will always make you confront your guilt and your shame. Eventually, we all have to face up to our guilt. As it says in Numbers 32:23, Your sin will find you out. And God reminds us in His Word that we’re all guilty here. Romans 3:10, None is righteous, no, not one.

The God of holy confrontation always makes you confront your guilt.

You might ask, “Why would God do that?”

And the answer is pretty simple.

It’s not that He delights in rubbing your nose in it.

Not at all.

His purposes are always redemptive.

God makes me confront my guilt to see if I will let Him deal with it.

He sends Moses to set His people free — but Moses needs to be set free, too. He’s still bound in chains of guilt over his past. And so the Exodus here is a liberation of Moses just as much as it is a liberation for the Israelites. He’s an Exodus God in this way. He’ll set you free, but only if you’re willing to pay the price — or a better way of saying it, if you’ll let Him pay the price.

Maybe you can relate to this. Moses is haunted by something that happened forty years ago — that’s how much time has passed since he killed that Egyptian in a fit of rage. It happened decades ago but I have a feeling it was still a fresh wound for Moses.

I’m basing this on my experience as a minister / pastor. I can’t tell you how many times I have talked to people over the years who are still haunted by the guilt of their actions from decades ago.

I spoke with someone not long ago — I’ll use a fake name — let’s call this person “Jim.” Jim committed a sin over 60 years ago. When it happened, he repented and confessed his sin to the right people. He asked for forgiveness from God and from the people he hurt. And I am confident that God heard Jim’s sincere cry and that He responded by forgiving him, just as it says in 1 John 1:9, If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.

But decades later, Jim keeps thinking about this sin and he wonders if he’s really been forgiven. Satan has planted some seeds of doubt in his mind and Jim keeps enslaving himself to his guilt — even though God has set him free and cleansed him from ALL unrighteousness through the blood of Jesus. Jim said, “Could you just remind me of the Good News one more time today?” So I told him all about Jesus and grace and mercy. And Jim wept as he put his trust in this old, old story how a Savior came from glory.

And I think this is the only reason God would have us confront our guilt: to see if we will let Him deal with it.

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Five Years Ago

Posted on September 23, 2023 by Jason

Fun pictures from five years ago, September 2018. I remember this little guy!

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