already & not yet

I’m still getting used to the idea of teams having first round byes in the playoffs. But conceptually, I like the idea of your top teams being awarded for winning their division. I mean, finishing in first place after 162 games ought to matter.

And also there’s this: MLB made no secret about it’s desire to shorten game length, which led to the advent of the pitch clock. It’s still a stupid idea, pandering to attention deficient “casual fans” who apparently weren’t watching games because they were taking too long. So Rob Manfred’s genius decision was to impose an arbitrary 15 second pitch clock for hurlers to 1) receive the pitch signal from the catcher, either through a PitchCom earpiece or good old fashioned hand signals; 2) shake off that signal, in the event that they want to throw a pitch other than the one called by the catcher; 3) check on any baserunners (in which cases the pitch clock is set to 20 seconds) and determine whether or not to make a pickoff throw; 4) come set; and 5) go through their delivery and execute a big league pitch prior to the expiration of the pitch clock, otherwise incurring a penalty of a “ball” being added to the batter’s count. I’ve worried all year about pitchers injuring themselves by rushing their mechanics because of this idiotic rule. If you’ve ever pitched — or in my case, if you have a son who pitches — you know that most pitcher injuries occur when the pitcher is tired or winded. And now we’ve just increased the likelihood of this scenario because those charged with stewarding the game only care about bottom lines, viewership numbers, and “growing the game” — which is always code for making more money. I guess that’s all well and good for a meaningless Pirates / Rockies game in late July (which no “casual fan” is going to watch anyway). But in October? In a playoff environment? Players have already said that in key moments late in games, it’s difficult for the pitcher to hear the PitchCom communication in their ear. What will this be like in a sold out domed stadium for a Game 6 playoff game? It’ll be nearly impossible. I just don’t see how any of this really does much to positively impact the game. But I’m basically an old man on this point. Get off my lawn, I guess.

Anyway, the playoffs start tomorrow, new rule changes and all. Here are my thoughts and predictions for each playoff series, along with Joshua’s.

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

This is by far the best matchup of any opening round series. Run differential (the difference between the runs a team scores and the number of runs they allow) is probably the best metric for determining a team’s overall quality (at least in my opinion). And according to run differential, these are the two best teams in the American League. The Rangers have a really dynamic offense, led by the middle infield combo of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Along with Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, and Mitch Garver, the Rangers boast a deep lineup that is capable of deciding a short series. The problem is their pitching. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are both on the shelf; Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t looked like himself after coming back from a late season injury; and the bullpen is a total wreck. Jordan Montgomery is a fine pitcher — and I’ll be rooting for the former Cardinal to continue his season long run of quality starts. But the Rays have quite an advantage when it comes to pitching, even without Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs. Tyler Glasnow in Game 1 and Zach Eflin in Game 2 might be enough to lead the Rays in a sweep. Can you imagine the juice in this series if all the injured / suspended players were available? It says something that the Rays still finished with 99 wins, despite losing their best player (Wander Franco) to suspension in late summer.

Jason’s prediction: Rays in three games.

Joshua, on the other hand, likes the Rangers in three.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

This is another really good matchup and I like the makeup of both of these teams. The Twins last playoff win came in October 2004. Since then, they’re 0-18 in playoff games, despite winning their division multiple times in the last 20 years. They’re basically the Dallas Cowboys of baseball. So I guess you could say that they’re due. They certainly have the pitching to win a short series. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have been really solid all year and Jhoan Duran has emerged as a premier arm in the back of their bullpen. And manager Rocco Baldelli uses his full roster to play matchups as well as anyone. And in terms of run differential, Minnesota grades out as a 93 win team, which means they underperformed just a bit in 2022. But the best Twins hitter over the last two months has been infielder Royce Lewis and his availability for this series is very much in doubt. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have an equally solid pitching staff, fronted by ace Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and AL wins leader Chris Bassitt. (Admit it: you had no idea Chris Bassitt led the league in wins, did you?) And their bullpen is even deeper with Jordan Romano, Jordan Hicks, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia. They also boast a good defense and a much better lineup. I expect the Twins to break the 18 game losing streak in this series — and don’t be surprised if Chris Paddack doesn’t have the ball in his hands in a key spot during the course of this series — but I think Toronto wins the series.

Jason’s prediction: Blue Jays in three games.

Joshua’s prediction: Blue Jays in three.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

When Brandon Woodruff came back from shoulder inflammation late in the season, Milwaukee was already cruising toward another NL Central Division title. But with Woodruff and 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes starting the first two games of a playoff series, I thought the Brewers could be set up for a sneaky postseason run, a la the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies who were carried through October by their co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. But now it looks like Woodruff will miss at least the Wild Card round and possibly the rest of the postseason. That may dim Milwaukee’s postseason luster just a tad, but I’m still taking them over the surprising Diamondbacks in this early round. They still have Burnes and Freddy Peralta. And nobody manages a bullpen better than manager Craig Counsell. The Diamondbacks, much like the Orioles in the American League, arrived ahead of schedule. In Arizona’s case, their surge into October is largely due to the emergence of Corbin Carroll, a 22 year old wunderkind who will pick up some much deserved hardware next month in the form of the NL Rookie of the Year award. But the DBacks had to exhaust their best pitchers just to sneak into the playoffs, thus they are starting a rookie with a 5.72 ERA in Game 1. I like Milwaukee to sweep and possibly even push the Dodgers to the brink in the next round.

Jason’s prediction: Brewers in two games.

Joshua’s prediction: Diamondbacks in two games. Not sure what he’s seeing that I’m overlooking.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

The Marlins took the season series from the Phillies by a game, which is kind of surprising to me. But Miami has outperformed expectations all season long. Based on run differential, Miami is more like a 75-win team, which doesn’t seem to bode well for their postseason odds. But they have pitching, which means they have a puncher’s chance. The case for Philadelphia is much stronger. They still have their pair of aces at the front of the rotation in Wheeler and Nola (although Nola underperformed in his contract year). And they also have a bevy of high caliber bullpen options, too. Oh, and they added Trae Turner to a squad that took the Astros all the way to six games last October. Their lineup boasts SIX 20-HR hitters, or FIVE more than Miami. That’s a bit misleading, seeing as how the Marlins played most of the year without Jake Burger and Josh Bell, two hitters acquired at the deadline who really helped lengthen the Miami lineup significantly. But I expect Philadelphia’s star power to be the determining factor in this series. I like Philly in three games.

Jason’s prediction: Phillies in three low-scoring games.

Joshua’s prediction: Philly sweeps in two.