Well, given my 1-3 prediction performance in the Wild Card round, you’d think I didn’t watch much baseball. But this game, man. It’s crazy. And in a short series, just about anything can happen. Congrats to the Rangers, Twins, Diamondbacks and Phillies for advancing to the next round.
I was most surprised by Arizona’s upset of Milwaukee. After the DBacks burned up Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly just to make it into the postseason, I didn’t think they would have the pitching to advance. But their bats chased Corbin Burnes early and they had a fresh Gallen ready to go for Game 2.
It’s also disappointing to see a 99-win team like the Rays eliminated this early. For most of the season, they’ve been one of the dominant clubs in the league. It just feels weird that they won’t be squaring off against Baltimore in October. But they were really outplayed by Texas in every facet of the game.
Here are my predictions / thoughts about the Divisional Series round, starting tomorrow:
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles shocked EVERYONE by winning 101 games this season, second only to the juggernaut Braves. The O’s were led by youngsters Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson (the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year), whose contributions alongside veterans Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle gave Baltimore an upper echelon offense. The Baltimore rotation might not be full of household names (John Means, Kyle Bradish, Kyle Gibson, and Grayson Rodriguez), but they’ve really pitched well down the stretch. And the O’s bullpen continues to be a strength, even without Felix Bautista.
Texas surprised me by sweeping the Rays on the road, although you could say that Tampa also bungled their way to defeat with their sloppy play. Nevertheless, the Rangers find themselves in the Divisional Round. And although the Rangers can certainly hit their way to a series win, they’ll need Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to repeat their performances from the Wild Card round. If they don’t, look for the young Baltimore hitters to feast on the beleaguered Rangers bullpen. Caveat: if Max Scherzer is somehow able to pitch in this series, that might tip the scales in the Rangers favor for me. But otherwise, I’m taking Baltimore to advance. Joshua says he’s doing the same.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
My initial thought here was that Houston would steamroll. But the more I think about this series, the more I think Minnesota can give the reigning champs a run. First of all, it’s a shorter series, which always favors the less talented squad. But I also like the mix and match capability Rocco Baldelli has available. You saw it in Game 2 when he pinch hit for Kiriloff in a key spot; his decision to bring Donovan Solano off the bench eventually put Carlos Correa in position to drive in a key run in Minnesota’s 2-0 victory. And that bullpen — lights out all the way.
Houston, on the other hand, has a lot of star power: Verlander, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Bregman. And yet, their pitching has not been crisp down the stretch. In fact, Minnesota has the all-important pitching advantage in this series, in my opinion. I’m actually picking the upset here. Twins in five. Joshua says he wants Houston.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Rematch time. I cannot WAIT to watch these games. Atlanta has been the best team in baseball all season and they look primed for another deep playoff run. But they’ll have to square off with a formidable opponent in Philly. (If MLB reseeded, the Braves would have drawn the Diamondbacks instead of the reigning NL-pennant winners.)
The Braves are a bit banged up, at least on the pitching side. Charlie Morton has been ruled out and who knows what to expect from Max Fried. In a short series like this, that puts a lot of pressure on Spencer Strider in Game 1. Of course, Strider has had a dominant season this year and he’s the best starter in this series. But even if you give Game 1 to the Braves, the Phillies have the next best starters available in Wheeler and Nola. And the Philly lineup is nearly as deep and their bullpen is a major plus.
Joshua’s taking the Phillies in an upset, so I’ll stick with Atlanta, although I see his logic. Either way, I expect this to be a fantastic series.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
These aren’t the same Dodgers we’ve been accustomed to watching in October, at least not on the pitching side. Clayton Kershaw is still there, but he’s not quite looked right in the second half. Gone are his rotation mates Julio Urias (suspended), Walker Buehler (injured), Tony Gonsolin (injured) and Dustin May (injured). In their place, the Dodgers have relied on a cadre of arms, mostly young, like Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot, along with timeless veteran Lance Lynn. All in all, it’s a bit underwhelming compared to the typical Dodger staff.
But the Dodgers have been carried all season by their two MVP candidates, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. The lineup behind them is a plus, with J.D. Martinez enjoying a renaissance season at designated hitter and Max Muncy and Will Smith providing additional depth. If I were making a case for the Diamondbacks, I’d probably lean on the fact that Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are really good starting pitchers — maybe better than anyone the Dodgers can roll out there present day. But I just don’t have that much faith in Arizona. Until the Dodgers prove that their window has closed, I’m banking on Los Angeles to advance. Joshua’s taking the Dodgers, too.
already & not yet 