Well, this is a sad day for me. Another baseball regular season is in the books. And although the excitement that is October baseball is will fuel me over the course of the next month, I’m taking a moment tonight to grieve the official end of summer. No more perusing the daily box scores every morning. No more checking the standings and the next day’s pitching matchups. No more Cardinal games to follow on the radio.
By the way, this Cardinals team may have tailed off down the stretch, but I’m as proud of this squad as any in recent memory. Nobody picked them to contend (not even this ardent fan), yet they held the league’s third-best record until their late summer fade. Still, this unit played vintage Tony LaRussa 25-man baseball and I loved them for it. Congrats, boys, on a well played season. And way to go, Tony.
Anyway, time for my annual end-of-the-season / playoff predictions post. With the final AL playoff spot still up for grabs (Go Twins!), I’ll make this post in two parts. Today: the National League.
NL MVP
This year lacks a clear cut choice for the league’s highest individual honor, which means several names are being bandied about in the MVP discussion. The league’s best team — the Cubs — lacks that one player with MVP-caliber numbers; Chicago’s offensive attack is more balanced. Some will argue that Manny Ramirez’s torrid two month stint in Dodger blue should garner him consideration (I disagree). Ryan Howard put his teammates on his broad shoulders in the second half and he leads the circuit in the glamor categories: home runs (48) and RBIs (146). But he also struck out 199 times and he batted just .250, which scares off a lot of voters. Ryan Braun and David Wright deserve to be in the conversation. So does Lance Berkman, whose Astros were in the hunt until the very end. But in my opinion, in a year with no clear cut choice on any of the postseason clubs, you have to go with the best player in the league, which in this case is clearly Albert Pujols. His .356 batting average is more than 100 points higher than Ryan Howard’s, who seems to be his nearest competition. He leads Howard in OPS by 200 points. He had more walks than strikeouts. Heck, he had more extra base hits than strikeouts. He helped keep a team of ragtags, journeymen, and spare parts competitive for 5 1/2 months. He’s the best player in the game today and the MVP should be his. Sure this sounds like a homer pick and it is. But it’s good to know at least one national columnist agrees with me. You should, too.
NL Cy Young
Another tough call. It’s been pretty much a three-horse race the final few weeks. Brandon Webb
Webb came out of the gate strong and leads the league with 22 wins. Tim Lincecum lost the ERA crown today to Johan Santana, but he was simply amazing this year, compiling a record of 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 265 strikeouts. What CC Sabathia did in Milwaukee these last couple of months was just awesome, especially pitching on short rest today to put the Brew Crew in the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. But it’s not enough to ignore the season long body of work Webb and Lincecum have amassed. Looks like I’m with Stark on this one, too; I’ll go with Lincecum (if his arm doesn’t fall off before he receives the award). Honorable mention to Johan Santana and Brad Lidge, who recovered his swagger this year to go 41 for 41 in save opps.
NL Rookie of the Year
No question, Geovany Soto. The Cubs catcher has played like a vet all year, both behind the plate and with the bat. This is a no brainer.
NL Manager of the Year
Another slam dunk. Lou Pinella has guided the Cubs to the best record in the league and they look to be the odds-on favorites to represent the Senior Circuit in the Fall Classic. Who said I couldn’t be objective about this stuff? Honorable mention to Jerry Manuel who helped salvage the Mets season and make them viable again, late-season collapse notwithstanding.
NLDS: Dodgers vs. Cubs
Chicago is the more complete team by far: they possess a balanced offensive attack and a deep bullpen with several live arms. I like their starting pitching a lot less than others seem to (Ryan Dempster as your Game 1 starter? Seriously?!?), but they’re clearly the better team against the 84-win Dodgers. But this is a different Dodger club with Manny and I expect them to give the Cubbies a run for their money. I think the more talented team will prevail in five games, but look for Torre and Co. to make it interesting.
NLDS: Brewers vs. Phillies
I think this is a great matchup. The Brewers somehow survived a 10-16 September to back their way into the playoffs. Too bad the same can’t be said for Ned Yost, who should land on his feet as the manager of the Mets next season. (Come on, you know those two are made for each other.) Can the Brew Crew ride CC Sabathia to a first-round upset of the NL East Champions? With CC and Ben Sheets in a short series, anything can happen. But those guys can’t pitch every game (unless Dale Sveum is fired and Brewers management hires Dusty Baker) and in a battle of bullpens, the advantage goes to Philly. Plus, the Phils feature a dynamic offense of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell, and Werth. And Philadelphia holds another key advantage: when it comes to mascots, the Philly Phanatic is way cooler than that Bernie Brewer guy or those really tall sausage guys. Philadelphia in five.
NLCS: Phillies vs. Cubs
I could never wholeheartedly root for the Cubs, especially in the postseason. But part of me really hopes they win the NL pennant and advance to their first World Series since 1945. Because then it’ll hurt even more when they inevitably choke. So, sure, Cubs in six.
already & not yet 