The Blessing of Family

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2020 MLB Predictions

Tonight the 2020 MLB season begins after a wild offseason. The Astros sign-stealing scandal and the Gerrit Cole record-breaking signing seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? The season was just set to begin when the world ended back in March. And honestly, I never thought I’d say this, but I didn’t miss the game nearly as much as I thought I would. The pandemic helped us see the trivial nature of so many things in our lives. But four months in, it is nice to have a distraction from all the negative headlines.

But honestly, the strife between the players and owners has also diminished my passion for the game somewhat. Which is telling, because I am a baseball guy. But if my love for the game has waned in light of this most recent financial spat, I can only imagine how the casual fan feels, to say nothing of the prospective one. Baseball has several major issues to work through — the pace of the game, a lack of interest among young fans, the way the game is dying in urban communities — but none is more pressing than the looming labor discussions. For the record, I’m on the side of the players, but for the sake of the game, I hope there’s not another work stoppage around the corner.

Anyway, this season is going to be super weird. Sixty games is such a small sample size that almost anything can happen this season. Maybe this is the shot in the arm baseball needs. The next two months are essentially a pennant stretch and all thirty teams have a shot. Well, except for the Orioles. (More on that below.)

Every year I make some predictions for the season and I usually do okay, but this season there are far fewer locks. With the top two teams in each division going to the playoffs along with two additional wild card teams, this will be an unprecedented year in that more than 50% of the league will advance to the playoffs this year. I know the idea is to increase the likelihood of the best teams actually making it to the playoffs, but I hate that percentage. There are going to be some really crappy teams in the playoffs this year. But whatever. At least the owners and players could agree on something.

At any rate, here are my predictions for the upcoming season.

American League East

There are few locks this year, but predicting this division is kind of a no-brainer. The Yankees have one of the most potent lineups I’ve ever seen: as I am watching tonight, Giancarlo Stanton has put on a laser show and Aaron Judge looks to be fully healed from his rib injury. They’re also deep: D.J. Lemahieu has the luxury of getting healthy before he suits up and one of their better bats (Miguel Andujar) remains on the bench tonight. And, oh yeah, they added Gerrit Cole to frontline the rotation. All in all, I think the Yankees are one of the best teams in the game and should contend for another title this year.

It’s a shame that nobody watches the Rays, because they have a great club, beginning with their pitching staff. Tyler Glasnow should be able to withstand the rigors of a 60 game season; with no restrictions, he could be a Cy Young contender. Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Nick Anderson, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Diego Castillo…the arms are just relentless on this club. I expect the Rays to finish second in the division, thus advancing to the playoffs.

The Red Sox signaled their expectations by dealing away Mookie Betts this offseason. The Sox and Jays will battle for third and fourth in this division — presuming the Jays can find a place to play their home games this season. Baltimore is as sure a bet as any team to finish last in their division. Seriously, with all of their games coming against the AL East and NL East — Braves, Nats, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Rays — the O’s might not win 10 games this year. Seriously. At least they get to play the Marlins.

American League Central

A lot of pundits seem to be pegging the White Sox as a sleeper team for this season. And they’ll be exciting to watch with youngsters Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Nick Madrigal logging significant innings. But I just don’t see them as a serious contender just yet. Maybe next year.

That leaves Minnesota and Cleveland as the best bets to advance. Minnesota already had one of the most homer happy squads of all time and then they went out and signed Josh Donaldson. But their most important offseason additions were pitchers: Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and Sergio Romo. I think Minnesota wins this division easily and ought to contend for the pennant. I like Cleveland to finish second, carried by Frankie Lindor, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.

American League West

This might be the best division in baseball. Houston, Oakland, Texas, and Los Angeles could all conceivably make the playoffs this year. Seriously. These teams are all that good. Who knows how Houston responds in light of the cheating scandal. I think they’ll still win the division based on their talent, but who knows. The pitching will probably come back to earth a bit after Cole’s defection to the Yankees, although a full season of Zack Greinke isn’t a bad fallback option. I see the Astros as one of the five best teams in baseball, so I’d be shocked if they didn’t work their way into the postseason conversation.

That leaves three teams vying for that final spot, although the other two could certainly be the AL wild card teams. I’m taking Oakland to finish second. They have a dynamic young core of position players and I really like some of their young pitchers. Typically, the Rangers are a premium offensive team with suspect pitching. But this year, the strength of this club ought to be the pitching, especially the rotation of Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Corey Kluber, and Jordan Lyles. That should carry them to a wild card spot. Ditto for the Angels. Boy, it sure would be great to see Mike Trout in October.

National League East

Some will say this division is the deepest in the game, but not true. It’s actually top heavy with the Nats and Braves, but the Phillies and Mets look destined to be .500 teams if you ask me. Washington retains the best starting pitching staff in the majors behind Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin — and I’m a big believer that good pitching beats good hitting. I don’t really love the Braves pitching staff, but I just can’t see the mediocre Philadelphia and New York hurlers performing well enough to surpass them.

Oh, yeah. And this division has the Marlins.

National League Central

I’d love to pick the Cardinals to win this division, but I really like what Cincinnati has done with their pitching staff. Luis Castillo could win a Cy Young award this year; Sonny Gray found himself again last season; and Trevor Bauer oozes unfulfilled potential. Offensively, Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos join the holdovers to form a formidable lineup. Defensively, they’re a total mess, which scares me a lot. But maybe they’ll have more homers than errors.

I like the look of the Cardinals, too. Defensively, they are incredible up the middle with Yadi, Kolton Wong, Paul Dejong, and Harrison Bader. That’s an elite middle of the field, which will especially help Cardinal hurlers who pitch to contact like Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson. Jack Flaherty should feast on the Central lineups he’ll be facing (Royals, Tigers, Pirates) and is a dark horse Cy Young contender. The offense projects to be league average, but maybe they can tread water until they call up Dylan Carlson. I like the Cardinals to finish second in this division.

I think the Cubs will be solid, possibly a wild card team. And the expectations shouldn’t be very high for either Milwaukee or Pittsburgh.

National League West

Boy, are these Dodgers going to be fun to watch. I’d love to pick another team to win it all, but in a 162-game season, this club could threaten the single-season win total. They ought to win this division easily and erase their championship drought. And I bet it’ll be fun to watch.

Who finishes second? I like the Padres. The Friars have one of the most exciting young lineups in the game with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Trent Grisham, Josh Naylor, and Francisco Mejia. But it’s their young pitching that will carry them. Chris Paddack established himself last season but remember the name Mackenzie Gore. I hope we get to see him in the big leagues this season. And this bullpen is one of the best in the National League.

I’ll go out on a limb and pick Arizona as the other wild card team, along with the Cubs.

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God and the Pandemic by N.T. Wright

I recently finished God and the Pandemic by N.T. Wright, with the tagline: “A Christian reflection on the Coronavirus and its aftermath.” I highly recommend it both for Christian and non-Christian audiences. As always, Wright is a wise and biblically-informed voice. In this case, he helpfully steers us away from some of the Christian responses to the coronavirus posing as “answers” — those who claim that COVID-19 is God’s special judgment on sin, for example. Not only do such “answers” smack of “special” knowledge given to the select few, they also completely miss the point.

For us to try and read God’s secret code off the pages of the newspapers may look clever. We may even get a reputation for spiritual insight — but actually, we are doing it because we have forgotten where the true key to understanding is now to be found.

Of course, this “true key to understanding” is found only in Jesus. Wright frames a thoroughly Christo-centric hermeneutic — not simply for the Bible, but (just as importantly) for our times. How fascinating that in Jesus, the ultimate “sign” of God’s Kingdom reign, proof that God is “in control,” we find find one “well acquainted with grief (Isa. 53).” Jesus is the lamenting Messiah. Is it any wonder, then, that He was compared to Jeremiah (Matt. 16:14)?

Following His lead, our discipleship requires that we see the present moment as a moment of lamentation. Rather than scornfully claiming to know “what God is doing in the pandemic,” it should be enough for us to grieve with the family who has lost a loved one; to stand with the caregiver unable to be with her grandmother anymore; to lament with our neighbor over his bankrupted business.

Wright says it well: “As Jesus had been to Israel, so his followers were to be to the world.”

This brief but profound work is a must read for those seeking their theological bearings in the midst of this pandemic.

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My Favorite Back-to-Back-to-Back Songs

This summer, I’ve been listening to Reunions quite a bit, the new album from Jason Isbell & the 400 Unit. There are some great songs on this record, including the triumvirate of “Dreamsicle,” “Only Children,” and “Overseas.” I love it when an artist stacks the deck with a trio of great songs — probably because it makes the vinyl listening experience even better.

Listening to these songs repeatedly got me thinking about my all-time sets of back-to-back-to-back songs. Regular album cuts only; no greatest hits or compilations. Here are some of the contenders.

U2, The Joshua Tree

Going with the GOAT right out of the gate. No record will ever be able to top the Hall of Fame trio of “Where the Streets Have No Name,” “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For,” and “With or Without You.” The rest of the album is fantastic, but it kind of feels like a letdown after that opening set. This is Aikman-Smith-Irvin right here. Pure rock perfection.

Chris Stapleton, From A Room, Vol. 1

Stapleton’s long-awaited follow up to Traveller kicks off with “Broken Halos” / “Last Thing I Needed” / “Second One to Know.” I can explain the appeal of Stapleton using those three songs: radio-ready soul; late 70s Willie heartbreak; and Hank Jr. outlaw-rock swagger. It’s perfect.

The War on Drugs, A Deeper Understanding

No surprise that I’d choose songs of this album, seeing as how I consider it the finest rock record of the new millennium. The opening salvo of “Up All Night,” “Pain,” and “Holding On” is some of the most sonically arresting music to my ears. Love it.

Radiohead, OK Computer

Take your pic: “Exit Music (For a Film)” / “Let Down” / “Karma Police” or “No Surprises” / “Lucky” / “The Tourist.” Can’t go wrong either way.

Augustines, Augustines

It’s a shame these guys aren’t a household name. The now-defunct band went for broke here on this 2014 self-titled release — give it a listen if you’ve never heard of them. Start with “Weary Eyes” and roll right on to “Don’t You Look Back.” But put the headphones on for “Walkabout,” one of the most moving rock songs I’ve ever heard. It’s truly epic.

Billy Joel, Storm Front

I’ll never understand why Joel chose the forgettable “That’s Not Her Style” to hit leadoff in this lineup. But 2-3-4 is a powerhouse pop trifecta: kids like me learned American history by memorizing the lyrics to “We Didn’t Start the Fire” — which eases into the haunting “Downeaster Alexa” only to elevate the energy once more on “I Go to Extremes.”

Sturgill Simpson, A Sailor’s Guide to Earth

On this stellar album, I love the move from “Keep It Between the Lines” to “Sea Stories” to Sturgill’s cover of “In Bloom.”

Hootie & the Blowfish, Cracked Rear View

“Hold My Hand” to “Let Her Cry” to “Only Wanna Be With You.” Evers to Tinkers to Chance.

Garth Brooks, No Fences

Every other song on Side A is a smash hit: “The Thunder Rolls,” “Two of a Kind (Working on a Full House)” and “Friends in Low Places.” But the second song on the record is one of my favorite Garth songs: in an alternate universe, “New Way to Fly” is recognized as the best song on this album…which it is. Wedged between “Thunder” and “Two of a Kind,” it completes this amazing set of songs.

The Avett Brothers, I and Love and You

This isn’t a perfect record, but sanding off the band’s rougher edges never sounded better than these three: the title track, “January Wedding” and “Head Full of Doubt.”

Jason Isbell, Southeastern

The first four songs on this album are all-timers: “Cover Me Up” is the most romantic song I’ve ever heard; “Stockholm” is a freedom anthem, while “Traveling Alone” is a mournful ode to road loneliness. Then you come upon “Elephant,” a rip-your-face-off tearjerker. Hands down the best back-to-back-to-back-to-back set of all time.

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It’s Hard Being Our Dog

Now I understand the meaning of “it’s a dog’s life.” Sadie moves around from chair to chair throughout the day. I bet she sleeps 22 hours a day!

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Playing at Toyota Field

Last night was a big night for Joshua. He played at Toyota Field, the home of the local Rocket City Trash Pandas. Actually, since the minor league season has been cancelled this year, Joshua had the chance to play there before the Trash Pandas played their first home game! It’s a beautiful field and I love that it’s so close to our place. Hoping it will be a major draw for our region.

Even better than playing there, Joshua had the chance to pitch last night. He came on in relief and got the final five outs for the save. He also had a good night at the dish, reaching base three times and scoring three runs.

Here are some pics from the night. Special thanks to our great friend, Lee Milam, for taking these shots with his camera.

I love this pic of Joshua at the plate with the “Toyota Field” scoreboard off in the distance
Ready to hit
Leading off
90 feet away
Closing time
Up, down, out
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Sixteen

He chose our heritage for us, the pride of Jacob whom he loves.

Psalm 47:4

Not all pride is sinful.

Today my heart is full; I am proud beyond measure.

Our twins have turned sixteen!

Today we celebrate sixteen years of God’s goodness toward us. We prayed for twins. We prayed for boy-girl twins. And I hesitate to share that, because I know many others have prayed before us and will pray long after us and are praying even still for the same kinds of things, and yet their prayers have not been answered, not yet, not in the ways they most desire. I know we didn’t have a magic formula or special words. I reject any such notion.

And yet. On this side of the prayer and the answer, I can only praise Him for what we have received. And be humbled.

We’ve learned much together these sixteen years. In the beginning, it was simply a war of attrition, seeing who would descend to the threshold of exhaustion first. Sleepless night after sleepless night; diaper change, bottle, burp, and bed. Repeat again and again and again.

The toddler years were wild and, just for fun, we decided to add another little one to the mix. Three children under the age of three….those days are a bit of a blur in my memory.

Then we started school and homework and sports and all of a sudden we’re here. Teaching them to drive has been an exercise in prayer and letting go — which is only training for what’s to come in the next few years. Today, after we got home from the DMV, they each took off to drive around the neighborhood and I thought of something a friend of mine said years ago that still sticks with me: “At some point, you just have to trust your prayers.” Come to think of it, I think this is the one bit of advice that has governed my approach to parenting teenagers.

Today my heart is full; I am beyond proud.

Not all pride is sinful.

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Best Music of 2020 (So Far)

In some ways, it’s hard to believe that we’re already past the halfway mark of the year. But then again, in other ways, it seems like 2020 is the year that will never end. In the absence of sports, concerts, and traveling, music has been one of the last modes of escape and distraction left for many of us. I know I’ve been listening to more music than ever before. (See my comprehensive Best Albums list for evidence.)

Thankfully, there have been some great musical releases in the last six months to help get us through these crazy days. Here are some of my favorites:

Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, Reunions

This one should come as no surprise.

I was honestly a little underwhelmed with “Be Afraid” and “What’ve I Done to Help,” the early singles from this album. But they fit perfectly as part of the overall tone of Reunions. I heard Isbell doing a pre-release interview and he said there’s a theme of “ghosts” running through the whole record. You find the ghost of a former love running around “St. Peter’s Autograph” and a former life haunts “It Gets Easier.” There’s the specter of existential crisis in the running chorus of “What’ve I Done to Help.” Even the Holy Ghost makes a cameo in “Only Children.” The album’s thesis is found in a line from “Only Children,” the first song Isbell wrote for Reunions: “And do the dead believe in ghosts?”

I guess the ghost metaphor is pretty appropriate for an album so fixated on reckoning with the past. But I love this album because it is also eerily pertinent to our current circumstances. “St. Peter’s Autograph” contains the line that best describes my assessment of the last six months: “We’re all struggling with the world on fire / And the fear we’re taught.” Much like “Hope the High Road” from 2017’s The Nashville Sound, “Be Afraid” is an anthemic call to activism and moral courage:

If your words add up to nothing, then you’re making a choice

To sing a cover when we need a battle cry

I’ve listened to this album so many times and it just gets better with each listen. A front runner for my favorite album of the year.

The Strokes, The New Abnormal

When this record was released, I tweeted that this was the best Strokes album since Is This It dropped nearly 20 years ago. That record came out almost a month after 9/11, which delayed their album release and prompted the band to cut “New York City Cops” from the CD release. Is This It was hailed as revolutionary, when in reality it was merely a great rock album. And although The Strokes hardly proved to be saviors of the genre, here they are two decades later, still releasing great music in the wake of a national crisis.

The New Abnormal is certainly a prescient title considering how drastically life has changed in the last six months, particularly in the band’s hometown of New York. Producer Rick Rubin has pushed all the right buttons here to restore the band’s original sound. The tone here is nothing like the largely forgettable Angles (2011) and Comedown Machine (2013). It makes you wonder how many great “Strokes” albums these guys could’ve made if they weren’t so bent on whatever preoccupations consumed them in the last 10-12 years.

The Secret Sisters, Saturn Return

I recently came across Saturn Return, the latest release from Muscle Shoals duo The Secret Sisters. And I have to say: it’s amazing. Their harmonies remain intact but the production puts this record over the top for me. I’m still absorbing some of the lyrics, but my early favorites are “Silver,” “Late Bloomer,” “Hold You Dear,” and “Healer in the Sky.”

Aretha Franklin (feat. The Boys Choir of Harlem), “Never Gonna Break My Faith”

The hymn we need right now.

These are some of my favorite albums and songs that have come out in 2020 so far. I’d love to know some of your favorites.

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Talking to Strangers

I just finished reading Malcolm Gladwell’s Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know About the People We Don’t Know. So much of this book was a revelation, especially in light of the seismic cultural shifts we’ve witnessed in the last six weeks or so.

Gladwell bookends his text with the case of Sandra Bland, an African-American woman who in 2015 was pulled over by a Texas state trooper for failure to signal a lane change after he came speeding up behind her. Three days later, Bland committed suicide in her jail cell. How could such an interaction go so horribly wrong? As Gladwell points out, our daily interchanges are fraught with so much potential for misunderstanding, particularly when it comes to our interaction with strangers.

I think you’ll find Talking to Strangers to be a timely read. Gladwell makes applications that are salient in the wake of George Floyd’s death and the subsequent protests that have gripped our national consciousness. If you’re familiar with Gladwell’s writings, it comes as no surprise that he draws on a wide range of examples here: the Bernie Madoff investment scandal; Neville Chamberlain’s misplaced trust of Adolf Hitler; the Jerry Sandusky case; Sylvia Plath’s suicide; the record of New York judges; the interrogation of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed; and the TV show Friends. Through it all, Gladwell illustrates our default to truth, our general inability to spot a liar, and the important link of coupling an individual to their social, even geographic, location.

This is a really important book and I highly recommend it.

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Quick to Love

These words were written in 1868, but they are poignant for our time as well:

Life is short. We do not have much time to gladden the hearts of those who travel the way with us. So, be quick to love; make haste to be kind.

Henri Amiel
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